On Tuesday, CECAFE reported that total exports of green Arabica coffee from Brazil in March amounted to 2.716 million bags, a drop of 6.3% compared to the same period last year. In the Zona da Mata, Espírito Santo, and Bahia the frequency should be higher, which should occur this Friday and between Monday and Thursday of next week. In the South of Minas, Cerrado, Paraná, and São Paulo the rains are expected to occur within the next 3 days. The forecast for May is for long dry days, which is positive for the harvest process of the 21/22 crop, but worrisome for the 22/23 crop. Some rains over this weekend, but should not be enough to replenish the water reserves in the soil. The last few days have been dry for most Arabica regions. However, it is important to remember that during 2020 we faced a long drought period and high temperatures, which affected the 21/22 crop and may still have its effects felt in the 22/23 crop. The rains at the end of 2020 and beginning of 2021 favored the recovery of the plant’s vigor, which are well sprouted and show good branch growth. Some growers have reported a higher than expected incidence of borer/insect damage, especially in crops of low production. The coffee harvest in Brazil has already started in the lower and warmer regions, mainly in the Zona da Mata. Producers and importers are cautiously following the progress of the 21/22 season. Some demand for short-term covering for certified coffees, with external demand, matched with internal supply. The FOB export market also continues slow. *Data as of the completion of this reportįew offers in the domestic market for the short term, with most deals being done for future delivery on September 21 and early 2022. ICE certified stocks of Arabica, meanwhile, increased to 1.875 million. GCA stocks in the US fell in March to 5.68m (-111k), the lowest volume since June 2015.
The dollar performed weaker and the Brazilian real more stable, which gave support to Arabica. Arabica quotes followed a gradual upward trend throughout the week with macro support, a fall in Brazil’s coffee exports, and concerns over Brazilian production.